Aluminum Hits 3-Year Peak

Today Aluminium ingot reach ￥23310/Ton (increased ￥850/Ton)The current rise in aluminum prices is driven by multiple factors. The core reasons lie in supply rigidity and macro expectations providing strong support: severely constrained supply elasticity. China's primary aluminum industry has reached its capacity ceiling of around 45 million tons, with extremely limited scope for any further capacity additions 。Simultaneously, China's large-scale equipment renewal and replacement policies continue to boost demand expectations, and the substitution effect of "aluminum for copper" is becoming increasingly evident.

The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". On one hand, the off-peak consumption season has led to weaker downstream procurement and inventory accumulation, putting pressure on the fundamental reality. On the other hand, positive macro prospects and sporadic supply concerns (such as geopolitical events) continue to inject upward expectations into prices, dominating the current trend.